Rotation Rankings |
By Bill Edwards
The Athletic recently published an article ranking the best rotations in MLB. They are in order
I started by simply looking at the pitching staff WAR for every team in the league to ensure I was including any team that could make an argument for inclusion. I also included teams with 1 or 2 ‘solid’ arms with a mind toward a deeper dive upon further review. These are the teams that survived the first cut.
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Los Angeles Angels
Miami
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee
New York Mets
Oakland
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Seattle
St Louis
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Washington
A closer look allowed me to eliminate some pitching staffs that are, good but not great. At least compared to the truly elite rotations in FLB. These teams are
Cleveland. (Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Joe Musgrove, Danny Duffy, Tanner Roark, Tanner Houck….)
The top 3 in this Cleveland rotation are young and full of potential. After that, past their prime veterans Duffy and Roark round out the group with a few young arms waiting in the wings.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Aaron Nola, Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser, Jordan Lyles, Trevor Richards)
The Dodgers boast an impressive top 3 but the talent drops off quickly after that.
Tampa Bay (Blake Snell, Chris Paddack, Jesus Luzardo, Adrian Morejon, James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard)
Few teams can stake claim to a more impressive stable of young arms but this ranking is for 2021 and this rotation is not quite ready to make our list.
Washington (Patrick Corbin, Kevin Gausman, Julio Urias, Reynaldo Lopez)
Similar to the Dodgers, this rotation has a strong top 3 but lacks the depth to compete
Milwaukee (Antonio Senzatela, Brad Keller, Freddy Peralta, John Means, J.T Brubaker, Austin Gomber, Taijuan Walker)
This rotation is depth personified. However, the lack of a true ace keeps Milwaukee out of the elite group.
New York Mets (Lance McCullers Jr, Justus Sheffield, Brett Anderson, David Peterson, Dakota Hudson)
The Mets have depth, potential and more top end talent than Milwaukee but still falls short of the elite class.
Miami (Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler, Pablo Lopez, Chad Kuhl, Drew Smyly)
Elite top of the rotation with Darvish and Wheeler. 3 through 5 rather uninspiring.
Things started to get difficult at this point. These teams don’t have as clear an advantage over one another. (Personal preference may cloud these decisions.)
Seattle (Lucas Giolito, Marco Gonzales, Spencer Turnbull, Dane Dunning, Carlos Carrasco)
Ace….check. Depth…..check. An impressive group for a team that was apparently rebuilding. Top 5 in FLB?
St Louis (Gerrit Cold, Jack Flaherty, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Williams)
The Cardinals would definitely be in our top 5 if not for a down season from Jack Flaherty. Ryu’s exit from St. Louis also hampers expectations.
Toronto (Lance Lynn, Sean Manaea, Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris)
Huge free agent additions of Lynn and Tanaka turned Toronto from pretender to contender
Philadelphia (Kenta Maeda, Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, Cal Quantrill)
A great rotation that I had the most difficult time placing on the final list. A healthy Soroka easily vaults them into top 5.
Pittsburgh (Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Chris Bassit, Josh Lindblom, Jorge Lopez)
2 aces and good depth. Scherzer/Greinke in the playoffs will be a tough out
Baltimore (Trevor Bauer, Zach Davies, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Minor, Rich Hill)
Anchored by and elite #1 starter in Bauer. Good depth.
Oakland (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Mahle, Tom Eshelman)
Elite top 3. Kershaw #3 starter is absurd. Good #4 starter in Mahle.
Los Angeles Angels (German Marquez, Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Jose Berrios, Zach Eflin)
1 through 5 not many can compete with this group. Top 4 starters can legitimately be ace of many staffs in FLB.
Cincinnati Reds (Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Dylan Bundy, Garrett Richards)
1 through 4 were all in cy young conversation. There is no argument about where the strongest rotation resides.
Final rankings (arguments welcome)
The Athletic recently published an article ranking the best rotations in MLB. They are in order
- Dodgers
- Padres
- Mets
- Braves
- Astros
I started by simply looking at the pitching staff WAR for every team in the league to ensure I was including any team that could make an argument for inclusion. I also included teams with 1 or 2 ‘solid’ arms with a mind toward a deeper dive upon further review. These are the teams that survived the first cut.
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Los Angeles Angels
Miami
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee
New York Mets
Oakland
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Seattle
St Louis
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Washington
A closer look allowed me to eliminate some pitching staffs that are, good but not great. At least compared to the truly elite rotations in FLB. These teams are
Cleveland. (Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Joe Musgrove, Danny Duffy, Tanner Roark, Tanner Houck….)
The top 3 in this Cleveland rotation are young and full of potential. After that, past their prime veterans Duffy and Roark round out the group with a few young arms waiting in the wings.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Aaron Nola, Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser, Jordan Lyles, Trevor Richards)
The Dodgers boast an impressive top 3 but the talent drops off quickly after that.
Tampa Bay (Blake Snell, Chris Paddack, Jesus Luzardo, Adrian Morejon, James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard)
Few teams can stake claim to a more impressive stable of young arms but this ranking is for 2021 and this rotation is not quite ready to make our list.
Washington (Patrick Corbin, Kevin Gausman, Julio Urias, Reynaldo Lopez)
Similar to the Dodgers, this rotation has a strong top 3 but lacks the depth to compete
Milwaukee (Antonio Senzatela, Brad Keller, Freddy Peralta, John Means, J.T Brubaker, Austin Gomber, Taijuan Walker)
This rotation is depth personified. However, the lack of a true ace keeps Milwaukee out of the elite group.
New York Mets (Lance McCullers Jr, Justus Sheffield, Brett Anderson, David Peterson, Dakota Hudson)
The Mets have depth, potential and more top end talent than Milwaukee but still falls short of the elite class.
Miami (Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler, Pablo Lopez, Chad Kuhl, Drew Smyly)
Elite top of the rotation with Darvish and Wheeler. 3 through 5 rather uninspiring.
Things started to get difficult at this point. These teams don’t have as clear an advantage over one another. (Personal preference may cloud these decisions.)
Seattle (Lucas Giolito, Marco Gonzales, Spencer Turnbull, Dane Dunning, Carlos Carrasco)
Ace….check. Depth…..check. An impressive group for a team that was apparently rebuilding. Top 5 in FLB?
St Louis (Gerrit Cold, Jack Flaherty, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Williams)
The Cardinals would definitely be in our top 5 if not for a down season from Jack Flaherty. Ryu’s exit from St. Louis also hampers expectations.
Toronto (Lance Lynn, Sean Manaea, Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris)
Huge free agent additions of Lynn and Tanaka turned Toronto from pretender to contender
Philadelphia (Kenta Maeda, Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, Cal Quantrill)
A great rotation that I had the most difficult time placing on the final list. A healthy Soroka easily vaults them into top 5.
Pittsburgh (Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Chris Bassit, Josh Lindblom, Jorge Lopez)
2 aces and good depth. Scherzer/Greinke in the playoffs will be a tough out
Baltimore (Trevor Bauer, Zach Davies, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Minor, Rich Hill)
Anchored by and elite #1 starter in Bauer. Good depth.
Oakland (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Mahle, Tom Eshelman)
Elite top 3. Kershaw #3 starter is absurd. Good #4 starter in Mahle.
Los Angeles Angels (German Marquez, Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Jose Berrios, Zach Eflin)
1 through 5 not many can compete with this group. Top 4 starters can legitimately be ace of many staffs in FLB.
Cincinnati Reds (Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Dylan Bundy, Garrett Richards)
1 through 4 were all in cy young conversation. There is no argument about where the strongest rotation resides.
Final rankings (arguments welcome)
- Cincinnati
- LAA (Berrios vs Mahle gives LAA the edge)
- Oakland (better top 3 than Pittsburgh)
- Pittsburgh (top two elite arms a cut above others on the list)
- Seattle (Giolito, Gonzales, Carassco head to head edges Toronto and Philly)
- Toronto (can argue Philadelphia belongs here)
- Philadelphia (A healthy Soroka jumps Philadelphia into top 5)
- St Louis (depth 1 through 4 gives St Louis the edge over Baltimore)
- Baltimore (great staff, but depth keeps them below St Louis)
- Miami (Darvish and Wheeler get Miami into top 10)
